4 Day 4 (January 29)

4.1 Announcements

  • Office hours today

  • Activity 1. Please hand something in by the end of the day Friday!

  • Space/time data and statistics in the news!

  • Questions/clarifications from journals

    • A comment about the predict() function in R
    • Irreducible uncertainty vs. Reducible uncertainty
    • “My understanding is that the probability distribution is what accounts for the variability that the deterministic component does not explain. It captures random noise, measurement error, and other sources of unexplained variation around the expected value. Is this correct?”
    • “When working with field data, I’m wondering how the timing and frequency of observations affect how uncertain our predictions or forecasts are, for example when collecting soil moisture every 5 minutes versus every 10 minutes.” actually the ones used in forecasting?”
    • “One thing I am still struggling to understand is the difference between Cross-Validation and evaluating a model’s residual error, provided by chapter 3 of the book.”
    • “This is brief question, but I didn’t fully understand the difference between generative and non- generative models, are the generative models

4.2 Distribution theory review

  • Probability density functions (PDF) and probability mass functions (PMF)
    • Normal distribution (continuous support)
    • Binomial distribution (discrete support)
    • Poisson distribution (discrete support)
    • And many more